We’re going to take a look into the future and project who the top 61 hitting prospects will be in baseball because that’s what prospecting is all about.
If someone obvious is omitted from the list that’s because I’m assuming they get at least one at-bat at the MLB level in 2024 — or at least has the opportunity to get an at-bat. Even one Major League at-bat constitutes graduation for this list.
There won’t be many college bats on this list but I’ll try and include my top four and slot them in where I see fit. Most will be honorable mentions for now.
It’s come to my attention that some of the Z-contact stats and chase rates outside of AAA and Low-A(FSL) might be a bit off as I’ve seen variance in different metrics. This is non-statcast data that’s scraped using a source and some of the numbers can be off by several percentage points. Hopefully in the future MLB will decide to implement statcast data in every MiLB ballpark to reflect more accurate data. I’m keeping the numbers as they are for now until I find a source that’ll reflect the data more accurately and I will let you know when.
Get your rose-colored binoculars on and let’s get started:
1) WALKER JENKINS (MIN):
In any other draft, Walker Jenkins might’ve been the first overall pick. A standout prep bat out of South Brunswick HS (GA), Jenkins earns comparisons to Larry Walker, baseball’s Larry Legend — absolutely unfair — given Walker is a HOF’er, but that speaks to just how highly Jenkins was viewed coming out of high school — and still is for that matter. He has elite bat control and elite bat speed which will likely produce 25-30+HR at the big league level. He has an elite feel for the zone — as evidenced by his 90.2% Zone-Contact% at Low-A last year. The potential is sky-high and the swing is already there for him to reach that upside.
Jenkins raked when he got his shot in the minors last year running through CPX and then getting a twelve-game stint at A-ball. At A, Jenkins slashed: .392/.446/.608 to go with a .483 wOBA. You read that correctly — nearly a .500 wOBA. He kept his K rate in check striking out only 10.7% of the time at the level. There’s prodigy written all over this kid — a power-hitting corner outfielder who also has some speed to boot — though it may take him some time to display the power in games. I have no doubt that it’ll arrive. The upside of his contact-ability, hit tool, plate approach, and power potential is why he’s ranked 1st on this list — also because I think the probable outcome of achieving it is higher than some of the others ranked below him, despite being only 18 years old.
2) EMMANUEL RODRIGUEZ (MIN):
E-Rod is an interesting case of someone who is so passive at the plate —as evidenced by his 51.2% Zone-Swing% — that he barely chases (22.8% O-Swing%) but strikes out a ton — 29.5% last year. Because of the passivity and excellent zone recognition, he also draws a lot of walks — 20.2% in 2023. The high walk totals will lead to high OBPs even if he never lowers his K rate. The power potential is 30+HR a year from this sweet-swinging lefty. He can even run and chip in some steals — we’re looking at possible mid-teens steal totals given his penchant for getting on base. That’s a dream outcome and a lot of factors have to be at play, mainly his health and a potential change in approach. He may be who he is by now, but I wouldn’t rule out a more aggressive approach in the future leading to more HR totals.
In his final 58 games at A+, E-Rod slashed: .270/.434/.525 with 9 homers and 12 steals. His wRC+ was 168 and his ISO was .255 while lowering his K rate to 27.7% in the same timeframe. His stock fell at the end of 2022 following his knee injury and the surgery which followed and it continued to be in question in the first half of 2023. He dispelled all those concerns with a strong second-half finish. All in all, E-Rod has the potential to be the overall top prospect in baseball with some obvious questions. The 30-35+ HR potential, the high OBPs, and the ability to steal bases all have him pointing to be a top 5 overall prospect by 2025.
3) DYLAN CREWS (WAS):
Months before the 2023 draft, Crews was considered a favorite to go first overall and was considered the best bat in the draft. He was taken 2nd overall to the Washington Nationals. Crews making his debut this year is a question mark for me. He’s on the fence. There’s certainly the possibility he goes ape-shit and the Nationals are forced to call him up but I see a scenario where they give him a full season in the upper minors and he starts with the big club in 2025 with the shot at going for Rookie of the Year so that Washington can earn their comp pick. Baseball’s funny that way.
Crews ran a 79.0 Zone-Contact% at High-A last year and a 77.9% Zone-Contact% at AA. He lowered his O-Swing% to a good 24.2% at AA, however his contact on pitches outside of the zone remained at just below 45%. — See Jenkins
Crews was a standout at LSU posting excellent EVs while hitting for average and power. The ceiling with Crews is just as high as the other names above him although I don’t see him reaching 30-35+HR potential. At his peak, Crews can be a high average/high slugging machine who flanks centerfield or a corner outfield position. In fact, he hits so well he can be a leader in those categories without putting up gaudy HR totals. There’s speed to his profile too, as he will be able to produce double-digit steal totals to go with 20-25 HR. It’s not a bad outcome — Crews is one of the top prospects in the game already and his stock is only going to rise by 2025, even as far as #1.
4) LAZARO MONTES (SEA):
Mini-Yordan is an absolute beast. He broke onto the scene in 2022 hitting 10 HR in 55 games in the DSL. Of course, that came with a 33.2% K rate so everyone raised their red flags. Then in 2023 he split time between CPX and A-ball and hit 13 HR in 70 games while lowering his K rate to 25%. Red flags are now shot down. If he keeps up that improvement in K rate, everyone is going to be in on Lazaro as the power potential is absolutely prodigious. He really is like a mini-Yordan, and like Yordan, Lazaro is being overlooked as a prospect. There’s a tremendous amount of growth I’ve seen from 2022 to 2023 that makes me comfortable ranking him as the 7th overall outfield prospect. For example, his O-Swing% sits at just 24.8% so we’re not really seeing him chase pitches outside the zone which is a good sign of his plate recognition. Is there still risk? Of course, as there is with any of these kids. Do I think the risk factor is overblown in comparison to the potential outcome he has? Also, yes. He’s still young enough to adjust on pitches in the zone (Z-contact% of 71.7% — there’s room for improvement) and when he does that he’s going to be at or near the very top of the rankings next year.
Just to throw in a bone, Lazaro finished the year ranked 6th in the final HitTilt+ rankings:
I would be looking to acquire him at all costs.
5) ROMAN ANTHONY (BOS):
Anthony may be the highest riser in rankings from 2022 to 2023. He had a standout 2023 in which he played three levels, excelling at each one. The approach is great as is the hit tool and he’s growing into more power — potential explosion in 2024 — again.
Anthony walked 17% of the time last year while keeping his K rate below 25% which lends itself to high OBPs.
He got better going from A ball to A+ as his power started to show, hitting 12 HR in 54 games, good for a 164 wRC+ and a .275 ISO. His K rate spiked to 30% but he still hit .294 and continued to display his on-base ability. He doesn’t usually chase pitches (29.5% O-Swing%) so the K rate may be inflated for such a small sample given that he lowered it to 13.6% in 10 games at AA. There is, however, slight concern with his contact ability with pitches in the zone as he finished A+ with a 67.9% Z-Contact%. Everything else points to a potential star, including his .419 wOBA and .575 wOBACON. There was helium with Anthony mid-season last year and there’s still potentially more helium left in the tank as he navigates the upper minors. There’s an outside chance he debuts this year, but I’m going to say he doesn’t — for the same reason as Crews. This is one of the best prospects in the game and he’s going to be near the top of the rankings in 2025.
6) SAMUEL BASALLO (BAL):
Basallo is without a doubt my top-catching prospect. He’s likely to move to first base but as of this writing, you can go ahead and try buying as he may have C eligibility upon arriving at the majors. For how long? I don’t know. What I do know is that Basallo is a 19-year-old who has shown an advanced approach, burgeoning hit tool, and excellent power development while improving at each level in the minors. He was 18 years old playing at 3 different levels during the 2023 season.
In 83 games at A ball to start the 2023 campaign, Basallo slashed .299/.384/.503 while posting a BB% of 11.6% and a K% of 20.7%. He hit 12 Home Runs and had an ISO of .205. Good Stuff. Here’s where it gets better:
In his final 31 games between A+ and AA, Basallo slashed .351/.450/.685 while increasing his BB% to 15.3% and lowering his K% to 16.0%. He hit 8 Home Runs in his final 31 games and had an absurd ISO of .333 to go with a 198 wRC+. This put him atop the HitTilt+ leaderboard for 2023 which is incredibly impressive stuff given his age and level:
He posts excellent EVs given his age and had a true breakout in 2023. Positional question marks keep him at 6, but he’s going to be near the top of these rankings regardless.
7) JOSUE DE PAULA (LAD):
The cousin of former NBA legend, Stephon Marbury — yeah, I’ll go as far as to call him a legend, Steph was damn fun to watch when he cradled the ball like a baby to the rim — De Paula is headed towards similar stardom. There’s superstar written all over him evidenced by his high-end exit velocities and excellent plate approach.
De Paula posts good BB rates and has power potential which will give him high OBPs and power numbers as he navigates further up the minor league ladder. He’s an advanced hitter for his age (83.4% Zone-Contact%) — 18 as of this writing — and is only getting better. The peak case for De Paula is one of the better power-hitting outfielders in the game with a seemingly high floor due to his excellent bat speed, hit tool, ability to get on base, and projectability to go with his current power output. He’s a name who I can see shoot up rankings this time next year.
8) COLT EMERSON (SEA):
Emerson stands in the box like a young Michael Conforto. He even has the elite bat-to-ball skills that Conforto showed while in the minors — lightning-quick hands, the ability to go with the pitch and drive it to all fields, and adaptability. That’s what comes to mind when I see Emerson — adaptability. He recognizes pitches and he drives them where they’re pitched.
This ranking might be too low going into next year and I’ll tell you why. Emerson has the potential to be one of the better players from the 2023 draft and was an absolute steal going at 22nd overall. Prep bats may take a while to get to the show but Emerson has the profile to navigate through the minors fairly quickly. He can hit for average and power and he has speed. In a short sample of 24 games, he slashed: .374/.496/.549 between CPX and A. He had just turned 18 years old at the time. This is a prospect with major helium and can explode his stock by this time next year — as high as the top 5.
9) JOENDRY VARGAS (LAD):
Joendry Vargas was a highly-regarded part of the Dodgers’ 2023 international signing class. Scouts raved about Vargas before the signing and they continue to do so. Beyond the scouting, the stat line that Vargas put up in the DSL was something to dream on before he actually did it.
He slashed: .328/.423/.529 with 7 homers and 19 steals in just 48 games. He posted a 149 wRC+ and a .201 ISO to go with a .451 wOBA. Impressive stuff from a 17-year-old. He even walked at the same rate he struck out — at about a 14-15% clip. We’re looking at potential plus power given his frame and projectability and an approach that lends itself to high OBPs. The upside is tantalizing — he’s posted elite max exit velocities for someone his age and we can continue to see that trend rise.
Vargas has the potential to be a top-10 prospect this time next year. It all depends on what the Dodgers’ plans are for him — whether he starts at CPX or A. The cat is out of the bag on Vargas.
10) ETHAN SALAS (SDP):
There’s a case to be made for Salas being the first catcher on this list and possibly even first overall. And I wouldn’t argue it, as he will post high OBP’s and has the potential for 20+ HR while sticking at catcher.
Salas was 17 years old during the 2023 season (He’s still just 17 years old as of this writing) and the Padres were rather aggressive pushing him all the way to AA to end the year. Even starting the year at A ball (as a 16-year-old, albeit for a few days) seemed aggressive but he burst onto the scene with his advanced feel and approach at the plate.
In 48 games at Low-A, Salas slashed .267/.350/.487 posting a BB% of 10.9% and a K% of 25.9%. He hit 9 Home Runs and stole 5 bags while putting up a more than respectable .220 ISO. He did all this while most kids his age were somewhere in their Sophomore or Junior years of High School. Insane.
Salas is an obvious stash and somebody who can debut in the Majors by 18 or 19 years old given the aggressive approach the Padres are taking with him. I’d like to see more from him in the minors, especially sticking at one level for a prolonged period of time to give him more reps as there’s no real urgency in rushing him. The hit tool and power in Salas’ approach to go along with his age are things you don’t see often and they should be taken into account if you try and acquire or add this prodigy. Truth is, however, there might not be a better time to sell as high as you can on Salas than right now as his perceived value and hype might be at their apex.
11) TERMARR JOHNSON (PIT):
Everyone is wondering where that notorious hit tool went. He’s hit .275, .244, .242 across 3 levels in the past 2 years.
The good: They were paired with OBP’s in the .400’s as he’s walking at over a 20% clip. Remember, he’s still just 19 and the approach looks good, albeit passive at times. I think the bat still has some life in it and the hit tool surfaces as he gets more comfortable.
More good: He maintained a wRC+ over 140 at both A and A+ last year in over 105 games. He added 18 home runs and stole 10 bases. There is a power profile in here that a few years ago was kind of ignored — like an old person eating a Werther’s on a park bench. You always walk by that guy. Back to Termarr Johnson. There’s legitimate 20-25 HR power in his bat and it’s not like the hit tool just vanished. He has to navigate the upper minors and with the profile in place, it’s a good bet he figures it out. And even if this is just a .260-.270 bat, the 20% BB rates suggest OBP’s in the low to mid .400’s. Things are looking up for Johnson — there’s potential here to be one of the top 2B prospects in the league as he matures and treads through the upper minors. If there’s an owner in your league worried about the low averages, I’d take this as a chance to pounce on the opportunity to acquire Termarr Johnson for fair value. Update: Termarr hit 2 homers in a spring training game and that buy-low window may have just shattered because of it.
12) FELNIN CELESTEN (SEA):
The 18-year-old was set to debut last year but suffered a hamstring injury putting an end to any thought of that. There’s not much to go by besides scouting reports and video and both have drawn rave reviews — you know it’s a good thing when other organizations are high on this kid and I can see Celesten starting the year in CPX and eventually finding his way to A-ball rather quickly.
Seattle doesn’t have to rush him, but the profile suggests he should be ready. The profile is a five-tool switch-hitting stud shortstop with enough power to boot, from both sides of the plate. My brain tells me this ranking is too high but I know in my heart of hearts it’s probably too low. I’ll come to revisit this next year when he’s inevitably in the top 10.